Weathering the Storm

library(tidyverse)
library(rebus)
library(wesanderson)
library(kableExtra)
library(tidyquant)
library(Quandl)
library(scales)
library(glue)

theme_set(theme_bw())

(cols <- wes_palette("Moonrise2"))

Covid-19 began battering the financial markets in February. Which sectors are faring best?

I’ll compare each sector in the S&P 500 with the overall market. And I’ll baseline each at 100% as of February 19th, 2020 so we can see which have recovered lost ground.

symbols <-
  c(
    "EOD/SPY",
    "EOD/XLV",
    "EOD/XLK",
    "EOD/XLE",
    "EOD/XLF",
    "EOD/XLC",
    "EOD/XLI",
    "EOD/XLY",
    "EOD/XLP",
    "EOD/XLRE",
    "EOD/XLU",
    "EOD/XLB"
  )

from <- "2020-02-19"

eod_sectors <-
  tq_get(symbols, get = "quandl", from = from) %>%
  group_by(symbol) %>%
  mutate(
    norm_close = adj_close / first(adj_close),
    type = if_else(symbol == "EOD/SPY", "Market", "Sector"),
    sector = case_when(
      symbol == "EOD/SPY"  ~ "S&P 500",
      symbol == "EOD/XLB"  ~ "Materials",
      symbol == "EOD/XLE"  ~ "Energy",
      symbol == "EOD/XLU"  ~ "Utilities",
      symbol == "EOD/XLI"  ~ "Industrical",
      symbol == "EOD/XLRE" ~ "Real Estate",
      symbol == "EOD/XLV"  ~ "Health",
      symbol == "EOD/XLK"  ~ "Technology",
      symbol == "EOD/XLF"  ~ "Financial",
      symbol == "EOD/XLC"  ~ "Communication",
      symbol == "EOD/XLY"  ~ "Consumer Discretionary",
      symbol == "EOD/XLP"  ~ "Consumer Staples",
      TRUE                 ~ "Other"
    )
  ) %>%
  ungroup()

With all that home-working and web conferencing, perhaps not too surprising to see Tech and Comms doing relatively well, along with Consumer Discretionary and Health.

eod_sectors %>%
  mutate(
    sector = str_wrap(sector, 12),
    sector = fct_reorder(sector, norm_close, last, .desc = TRUE)
  ) %>%
  ggplot(aes(date, norm_close, colour = type)) +
  geom_rect(aes(xmin = min(date), xmax = max(date), ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf), 
            fill = if_else(eod_sectors$type == "Market", cols[1], NULL), colour = "white") +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey80") +
  geom_line(key_glyph = "timeseries") +
  facet_wrap(~sector) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = cols[c(3, 4)]) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format()) +
  labs(
    title = "S&P 500 Sector Impact of Covid-19",
    subtitle = glue("Relative to {from}"),
    x = NULL, y = NULL, colour = NULL
  ) +
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))